U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Stephany Kirkpatrick is CEO of Orum, a payments technology company.
Richard Chambers is the CEO of Richard F. Chambers & Associates, a global advisory firm for internal audit professionals, and also serves as senior advisor of risk and audit at AuditBoard. Previously, he served for over a decade as the president and CEO of the Institute of Internal Auditors, where he led the organization to record global membership and countless milestones. Prior to the IIA, Chambers was national practice leader in Internal Audit Advisory Services at PwC and vice president of the IIA's Learning Center.
Joe Nestlerode is a partner at Alpha FMC with over 28 years of industry experience in senior technology and business roles in the wealth management industry.
He has overseen large strategic engagements including M&A, advisor platform development, client portal design and development and capability optimizations across front-, middle- and back-office functions. Prior to joining Alpha FMC, he was a product and technology executive for the RIA, IBD and 1099 channels at Wells Fargo Advisors.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.