U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Steve Johnson is the co-founder and head of product for insured.io. He has over two decades of experience in the insurance industry, working in multiple development and underwriting roles with P&C lines insurance companies.
Zachary Decker is a master of accounting student at the University of Northern Iowa and serves as a sergeant in the Iowa National Guard. He served as the president of the accounting clubs at the University of Northern Iowa and Des Moines Area Community College and held positions as Treasurer of the University of Northern Iowa's Veterans Association and Global Business Club. He recently accepted a position to start his accounting career at PwC in Austin, Texas.
Attila Toth is the founder and CEO of ZestyAI, a risk platform for property and casualty insurers. With over two decades of experience building high-growth businesses at the intersection of data and climate science, Attila has worked with insurers and regulators across the U.S. to scale AI adoption responsibly. Before founding ZestyAI, he held leadership roles at C3 AI and SunEdison and was a strategy advisor at McKinsey & Co.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.