U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Kevin Fromer is president and CEO of the Financial Services Forum, which represents the eight largest, most diversified U.S. banking institutions. Previously, Fromer was the executive vice president and head of public affairs for HSBC North America Holdings, where he was responsible for public policy and government affairs at the federal and state levels. Fromer spent over two decades in U.S. federal government, including as assistant secretary of the Treasury for legislative affairs from 2005-2009.
Kenneth E. Bentsen Jr. is president and CEO of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.
Michael Simon is a consultant for ABBYY and the principal of Seventh Samurai, an e-Discovery and information governance expert consulting firm. Michael is a legal technology thought leader, having made over 100 presentations and written dozens of articles on e-Discovery and legal technology topics, including a book on Internet Law in 2002. He received his J.D. from Loyola University Chicago School of Law, and his B.A. cum laude from Tufts University.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.