U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
David Trapp is CEO of ArmorPoint and its parent company Trapp Technology, both of which he founded in 2007 and 2018, respectively. He has almost two decades of experience in cybersecurity and IT services.
Gregg Golson CPCU, ACS, AIC, AIM, AINS, AIS, API, CSM is a speaker, consultant, and strategy coach. He has 25+ years in claims leadership, marketing, and strategic planning in the insurance industry. At J.S. Held, he helped create over 1,700 sessions for 135,000+ attendees while leading verbal thought leadership. Gregg has handled over 12,000 claims, been on 39 tours of catastrophe duty, and handled over 275 large losses in 13 states. He is a frequent speaker at national events on soft skills, resilience, and adaptability. He is currently the Lead Strategist at UP2Now LLC.
Nic Johnson is the founder of ListWise.
Previously he spent 17 years at PIMCO, where he managed over $30 billion in commodity and real estate portfolios. He is the coauthor of "Intelligent Commodity Indexing," published by McGraw-Hill. Prior to entering financial services, he was a research fellow at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, where he researched new methods for autonomous navigation for future Mars missions.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.