When the U.S. Congress passed its omnibus spending and COVID relief bill last month, plenty of people noted that it had a surprising amount for environmentalists to celebrate. Among the topline climate provisions: significant limits on a potent greenhouse gas found in refrigerants, new funds for wind and solar development, and an extension of the 45Q tax credit, which gives companies a tax break for capturing carbon.
There’s no doubt carbon capture is an industry in need of a jump start. If the world is going to meet its goal to keep temperature rise under 2° Celsius compared to preindustrial levels, everyone from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to the International Energy Agency agrees the world must capture and store much more carbon than we currently do. According to the IEA, we probably need to capture between 10 percent and 20 percent of the roughly 35 billion metric tons of carbon we produce annually if we want to prevent the worst effects of climate change.
Michelle Bonat is the chief AI officer at AI Squared, with a history of leadership roles in AI and technology, including AI CTO at JPMorgan Chase and head of AI Innovation at Chase. She led global engineering and product initiatives at Oracle across 30 countries and founded a fintech startup. A patent holder and hands-on data scientist always experimenting with the next new innovation, Michelle also drove product leadership at three companies that were acquired including Ariba (acquired by SAP).
Rathi Murthy is the Chief Technology Officer at Varo Bank, the first nationally chartered all-digital consumer bank in the United States. In this role, she leads the company's end-to-end technology strategy, overseeing the design and development of secure, scalable, and AI-powered digital banking platforms. Her leadership is instrumental in advancing Varo's mission to build inclusive, accessible, and real-time financial solutions for millions of consumers.
A seasoned technology executive, Rathi brings over 25 years of experience leading innovation and digital transformation at some of the world's most recognized technology and financial services companies. Prior to joining Varo, she served as Chief Technology Officer and President of Expedia Product & Technology at Expedia Group, where she modernized the company's global travel infrastructure, integrating AI-driven personalization, modular architecture, and advanced cloud capabilities across its family of brands.
Earlier, she held executive leadership roles at Verizon Media and Gap Inc., where she led enterprise cloud migrations, e-commerce platform evolution, and large-scale product delivery initiatives across global markets.
Rathi also served as Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer of Enterprise Growth at American Express, where she was responsible for the technology strategy and operations of the Serve platform and a suite of prepaid products including Bluebird.
Rathi's early career includes engineering leadership roles at eBay, Yahoo!, Sun Microsystems, and WebMD, where she consistently delivered improvements in platform stability, operational agility, and customer experience.
In addition to her executive work, Murthy is a board member at PagerDuty, Inc., a leader in digital operations management, and serves as an External Expert Advisor to the University of San Francisco's Board of Trustees Committee on Information Technology Strategy. She is also a regular speaker at industry events and leadership forums, offering thought leadership on topics such as fintech innovation, integrating AI, platform transformation, and executive technology leadership.
Currently the world captures about 40 million tons a year — a mere tenth of 1 percent of our total annual emissions. The global carbon capture industry is so small, in fact, that the U.S., which has just a dozen commercial facilities working, is its undisputed leader.
There are many reasons why carbon capture hasn’t taken off, but the primary one is that it’s expensive, and for a long time there was no incentive for big emitters such as oil refineries or cement makers to invest in making the technology profitable. In theory, that changed in 2018, when Congress greatly expanded the 45Q tax credit to allow companies to deduct as much as $50 (up from $20) per metric ton of carbon captured and stored permanently underground.
But the expansion came with a catch: It applied only to projects that had begun construction by 2023.
Carbon capture projects are very complicated. According to the Carbon Capture Coalition (CCC), it takes about five years on average just to get permitting to begin construction.
You see the problem. In the two years since 45Q was expanded — with great expectations that it would inspire lots of new projects — none have launched. Brad Crabtree, director of CCC, said several dozen are in the development stage, but many of these are now at risk of being abandoned since COVID has depressed the oil and gas market.
So, Congress stepped in again. Not only did it extend the tax credit out to 2025, the funding bill also added about $2 billion to fund six projects to demonstrate real world operability of innovative new carbon capture technologies. Significantly, two of those are reserved for steel and cement plants, as opposed to utilities, where previous investments have led to big failures. Currently there’s only one steel plant in the world with carbon capture, in Abu Dhabi, and the first cement factory with carbon capture is set to be built in Norway.
What can taxpayers realistically hope to get from their investment? Crabtree said that it will be a good thing if roughly 30 new projects, nearly triple the country’s current capacity, become operational. While that won’t capture nearly enough carbon in the short run, it might be enough to nurture a struggling industry, much the way tax credits in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 helped accelerate wind and solar.
“The whole point of the credit is to prove the technology works and costs can be lowered so a virtuous circle of investing and building can begin,” Crabtree said. “We can then ramp up in 2035."