New Jersey and Florida account for almost half of the 50 U.S. counties whose housing markets are most vulnerable to the economic effects of the coronavirus, an Attom Data Solutions report said.
Attom ranked 483 counties across the country based on the percentage of housing units receiving a foreclosure notice in the fourth quarter, the number of underwater properties in each county and the percentage of local wages required to pay for major homeownership expenses.
Thirty-six of the top 50 most vulnerable counties had median home prices in the $160,000-to-$300,000 range, the report noted.
Of the 10 most vulnerable counties, six are in New Jersey, including Sussex at No. 1 and Warren at No. 2.
"It looks like the Northeast is more at risk than other areas," Todd Teta, Attom's chief product officer, said in a press release. "As we head into the spring home buying season, the next few months will reveal how severe the impact will be."
Among the New Jersey counties that would be most affected, five are in the New York metropolitan area: Bergen, Essex, Passaic, Middlesex and Union. However, of the four counties in New York that Attom considered to be most vulnerable, only Rockland was in proximity to New York City.
Carl E. Sera is a chartered market technician (CMT) and the managing principal of Sera Capital Management, a fee-only registered investment advisor based in Annapolis, Maryland, specializing in tax-efficient real estate exit planning, 1031 exchanges, Delaware statutory trusts and 721 UPREIT structures. He has more than 19 years of experience in financial services.
J. Henning Buchholz is a strategic initiatives, transformation and M&A leader who supports global organizations in unlocking value through strategic transactions and enterprise change. As a principal with Deloitte Consulting's M&A practice and co-leader of the U.S. divestitures & separations group, he advises global life sciences, technology, and other organizations on reshaping portfolios, driving growth and unlocking operational value through complex transactions and enterprise transformations.
Erin DeHaven is a partner with Deloitte Tax LLP in the transaction & integration services practice. She assists clients in addressing their comprehensive tax responsibilities, including tax technical, departmental operations and business process considerations during corporate life events, such as mergers, acquisitions, divestitures and legal entity rationalizations. Her experience includes transaction planning, consolidated group transactions, carve-out tax accounting, continuing operations calculations and project management. She has more than 12 years of experience assisting multinational corporations with their federal, state and international tax compliance and tax planning considerations, including ASC 740 and related accounting matters.
For New York City proper, all five boroughs were in the middle of the list: Staten Island was ranked 161, Queens was 271, Manhattan at 312, Brooklyn at 320 and the Bronx was 327.
Most of the Florida counties considered at risk are in the northern and central portions of the state. But Broward County, which includes Fort Lauderdale, is also on that list.
There were four counties in the metro Chicago area on the list were Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will in Illinois. Cook County, which includes Chicago proper, is ranked 53rd most vulnerable.
Meanwhile, the only California county on the 50 most vulnerable list is Shasta. Los Angeles County was No. 276. The Bay Area counties were also in the bottom half of the list.
At the other end of the spectrum, 10 of the counties where the housing market is least vulnerable to the coronavirus are in Texas. Seven are in Wisconsin and there are five in Colorado.
King County in Washington, where Seattle is located, was the 20th least vulnerable county according to Attom.
