New Jersey and Florida account for almost half of the 50 U.S. counties whose housing markets are most vulnerable to the economic effects of the coronavirus, an Attom Data Solutions report said.
Attom ranked 483 counties across the country based on the percentage of housing units receiving a foreclosure notice in the fourth quarter, the number of underwater properties in each county and the percentage of local wages required to pay for major homeownership expenses.
Thirty-six of the top 50 most vulnerable counties had median home prices in the $160,000-to-$300,000 range, the report noted.
Of the 10 most vulnerable counties, six are in New Jersey, including Sussex at No. 1 and Warren at No. 2.
"It looks like the Northeast is more at risk than other areas," Todd Teta, Attom's chief product officer, said in a press release. "As we head into the spring home buying season, the next few months will reveal how severe the impact will be."
Among the New Jersey counties that would be most affected, five are in the New York metropolitan area: Bergen, Essex, Passaic, Middlesex and Union. However, of the four counties in New York that Attom considered to be most vulnerable, only Rockland was in proximity to New York City.
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Dr. Bart Hildreth is professor and former dean at the Andrew Young School of Policy Studies at Georgia State University in Atlanta. Previously, Bart spent 30 years as a business school professor at Wichita State University (including interim business dean), LSU, and Kent State. His expertise is state and local finance, with a specific focus on municipal securities and tax policy.He is a public member of the Board of Directors of the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board (2012-2015). He has served on the National Advisory Council on State and Local Budgeting and the Governmental Accounting Standards Advisory Council, received two gubernatorial appointments to serve on the board of the Kansas Development Finance Authority, chaired a state-wide tax review committee, served on several GFOA national committees (including the disclosure task forces), and held the position of Director of Finance for the City of Akron, Ohio where he had financial responsibility for the successful workout of a technical default on a waste-to-energy facility.Since 1989, he has served as the editor-in-chief of the only refereed journal devoted to municipal securities, the Municipal Finance Journal. In addition to numerous journal articles and books, his publications include State and Local Government Debt Issuance and Management, the Handbook on Taxation, and Budgeting: Politics and Power (Oxford University Press, 2010).A Fulbright Scholar (at McGill University, Montreal), he also received the 2008 national award for lifetime scholarly achievement in the field of public budgeting and financial management. Bart�s degrees are from the University of Alabama (B.A.), Auburn University at Montgomery (M.P.A) and the University of Georgia (Ph.D.).
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For New York City proper, all five boroughs were in the middle of the list: Staten Island was ranked 161, Queens was 271, Manhattan at 312, Brooklyn at 320 and the Bronx was 327.
Most of the Florida counties considered at risk are in the northern and central portions of the state. But Broward County, which includes Fort Lauderdale, is also on that list.
There were four counties in the metro Chicago area on the list were Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will in Illinois. Cook County, which includes Chicago proper, is ranked 53rd most vulnerable.
Meanwhile, the only California county on the 50 most vulnerable list is Shasta. Los Angeles County was No. 276. The Bay Area counties were also in the bottom half of the list.
At the other end of the spectrum, 10 of the counties where the housing market is least vulnerable to the coronavirus are in Texas. Seven are in Wisconsin and there are five in Colorado.
King County in Washington, where Seattle is located, was the 20th least vulnerable county according to Attom.
