New Jersey and Florida account for almost half of the 50 U.S. counties whose housing markets are most vulnerable to the economic effects of the coronavirus, an Attom Data Solutions report said.
Attom ranked 483 counties across the country based on the percentage of housing units receiving a foreclosure notice in the fourth quarter, the number of underwater properties in each county and the percentage of local wages required to pay for major homeownership expenses.
Thirty-six of the top 50 most vulnerable counties had median home prices in the $160,000-to-$300,000 range, the report noted.
Of the 10 most vulnerable counties, six are in New Jersey, including Sussex at No. 1 and Warren at No. 2.
"It looks like the Northeast is more at risk than other areas," Todd Teta, Attom's chief product officer, said in a press release. "As we head into the spring home buying season, the next few months will reveal how severe the impact will be."
Among the New Jersey counties that would be most affected, five are in the New York metropolitan area: Bergen, Essex, Passaic, Middlesex and Union. However, of the four counties in New York that Attom considered to be most vulnerable, only Rockland was in proximity to New York City.
Carey Anne Nadeau is a MIT-trained entrepreneur, focused on modernizing the measurement of risk. Formerly a researcher at the Brookings Institution and Urban Institute, Carey Anne went on to found ODN (ODNsure.com), which uses location-based driving data and open data to predict where car crashes are likely and help auto insurance carriers and city Vision Zero Initiatives prevent crashes and save lives. She is the host of Profiles in Risk, a podcast featuring influential drivers of transformation in the insurance industry.
Rani Hoitash is the John E. Rhodes Professor of Accountancy at Bentley University. He received his Ph.D. in accounting and information systems from Rutgers University and a Bachelor of Science in Economics at the College of Management in Tel-Aviv Israel. His research concentrates on corporate governance, internal controls and auditing. His work is published in The Accounting Review, Journal of Accounting Research, Journal of Accounting & Economics, Journal of Financial Economics, Contemporary Accounting Research, Auditing: A Journal of Practice and Theory, Sloan Management Review, and several other journals. Professor Hoitash’s teaching interests include financial accounting, accounting information systems, and auditing. Hoitash recently served as an editor of Auditing: A Journal of Practice and Theory and on the editorial boards of Contemporary Accounting Research and the Journal of Business Research. He is a member of the Information Systems Audit and Controls Association and the American Accounting Association and is a Certified Information System Auditor (CISA).
Landi Morris is a Ph.D. student at Bentley University. Her research interests include audit quality, fees and resources. Prior to pursuing an academic career, Landi served as a tax manager in the Boston office of Grant Thornton LLP. She is a CPA licensed in the state of Massachusetts.
For New York City proper, all five boroughs were in the middle of the list: Staten Island was ranked 161, Queens was 271, Manhattan at 312, Brooklyn at 320 and the Bronx was 327.
Most of the Florida counties considered at risk are in the northern and central portions of the state. But Broward County, which includes Fort Lauderdale, is also on that list.
There were four counties in the metro Chicago area on the list were Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will in Illinois. Cook County, which includes Chicago proper, is ranked 53rd most vulnerable.
Meanwhile, the only California county on the 50 most vulnerable list is Shasta. Los Angeles County was No. 276. The Bay Area counties were also in the bottom half of the list.
At the other end of the spectrum, 10 of the counties where the housing market is least vulnerable to the coronavirus are in Texas. Seven are in Wisconsin and there are five in Colorado.
King County in Washington, where Seattle is located, was the 20th least vulnerable county according to Attom.
