U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Daniel Gremmell is the chief data officer at Zinnia, where he oversees the implementation of data science to optimize the insurance experience at every touchpoint. Daniel led the data team at Policygenius for more than three years and previously served as vice president of data science at Plated, and head of data science at John Wiley and Sons before that. Daniel began his career in operational analytics at companies across the consumer goods, aerospace, healthcare and automotive industries, including Crane Aerospace and Volkswagen. He holds a master's degree in statistics from Rochester Institute of Technology, a master's degree in manufacturing engineering from Kettering University, and a bachelor's degree in operations management from Rutgers.
William Sweetnam is the Legislative And Technical Director at ECFC, a non-profit organization dedicated to maintaining and expanding employee benefit programs on a tax-advantaged basis.
Jasmine Hathaway is a co-founder of PALS (Professionals of After Loss Services), which brings together professionals who are passionate about filling the gap in support for families struggling to manage the administrative and logistical tasks of settling an estate while grieving the death of a loved one.
PALS provides online education to teach others how to become after loss professionals, a membership, and a business affiliate program for this burgeoning community.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.