States see $31B of taxes disappear due to COVID recession

Revenue dropped 6 percent as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.

U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.

The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.

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David Wilson is group head of risk intelligence at the London Stock Exchange Group.

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Mr. Wilson joined the firm in 1999 and is a managing director responsible for the Liability Driven Investment business segment. His background includes structuring and managing complex asset/liability programs, utilizing multiple strategies in different currencies. During his career, he has developed innovative solutions for clients seeking to optimize their business profile, generate value, de-risk or manage liquidity. He possesses strong capabilities in treasury management, structuring and capital modeling, risk management and hedging. Mr. Wilson has a bachelor's degree in economics from the University of Albany and a master's degree in finance from Fordham University. He holds the designation of Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) through the CFA Institute and is a member of the New York Society of Security Analysts.

Gary Hallgren

Gary Hallgren is president at Arity, where he leads the development and implementation of Arity's strategy and operations.
 
Gary has extensive experience creating next-generation telematics solutions and Software as a Service (SaaS) business models, managing mergers and acquisitions of public and venture-backed companies and leveraging data and analytics to create breakthrough business opportunities.
 
Prior to joining Allstate in 2015, Gary served as senior vice president of Corporate Strategy at Telogis, where he negotiated four strategic acquisitions related to fleet management, insurance telematics, routing and logistics and commercial navigation. Previously, he was CEO of Remote Dynamics Inc., where he led a turnaround and positioned the company as a leading telematics supplier to the construction industry.
 
Earlier in his career, Gary served as president and CEO of WirelessCar North America, Inc., which provides telematics services to the fleet management industry and vehicle manufacturers. He also served as vice president of operations at Volvo Technology of America, which provides telematics solutions for cars, trucks and marine products.

The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.

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A boarded up Isabel Marant store closed in the SoHo neighborhood of New York.
Bloomberg News

The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.

Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.

“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.