U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Murat Kilicoglu joined Cota Capital as a Principal in 2022 focusing on the evaluation and monitoring of private investments as well as designing and implementing value creation strategies across the broad Cota portfolio. Prior to Cota, Murat was a Vice President in the Investment Banking Division of Evercore focusing on mergers and acquisitions within the technology sector. Prior to Evercore, Murat was a Vice President at Credit Suisse in the Investment Banking Division focusing his time on strategic advisory and financing assignments for software and FinTech companies. Previously, Murat was an Investment Associate at TRPE Capital focusing on private equity and venture capital investments across the technology sector. Murat began his career at Roland Berger, where he worked as a strategy consultant to technology firms and private equity portfolio companies in the areas of corporate strategy, growth strategy, go-to-market strategy, commercial due diligence, and corporate restructuring. Murat received a B.S. in Electrical and Electronics Engineering from Bogazici University in Istanbul and an M.B.A. from The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.
Chris Denver is a director at Stout. He has over 20 years of experience assisting domestic and international publicly traded and privately held companies with complex accounting and financial reporting issues, such as debt and equity issuances, share-based payment arrangements, purchase accounting, revenue recognition, earnings per share, and the adoption of new accounting standards.
Dillon Clair is the director of state advocacy and litigation at the ERISA Industry Committee.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.