U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Adele Shraiman is a senior campaign representative with the Sierra Club's Fossil-Free Finance campaign, where she focuses on the banking sector, financial regulation and climate risk. She holds an MSc from the London School of Economics.
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Tim Long is a Managing Director in Financial Services. He has deep knowledge of financial services regulation with hands on experience in all bank supervision and policy related matters. He retired from the OCC after a 31 year career in which he oversaw virtually all of the agencys bank supervision and policy units. He has extensive experience in large and complex bank supervision, regional financial institutions and community banking. In his most recent role with the OCC, Tim served as Senior Deputy Comptroller for Bank Supervision Policy and Chief National Bank Examiner. He was a key advisor to the Comptroller and a member of the OCCs Executive Committee. Tim was also a key advisor to the U.S. Department of the Treasury during the recent financial crisis. He served as the Regulatory Council chair of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) Capital Purchase Program and was a member of the Financial Stability Oversight Council Deputies Committee created under the Dodd-Frank Act. Earlier in his tenure with the OCC, Tim also held the positions of Senior Deputy Comptroller for Midsize/Community Bank Supervision and Deputy Comptroller for Large Bank Supervision, and was the examiner-in-charge of several large, complex national banks.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.