U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
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Baruch Lev is the Philip Bardes Professor of Accounting and Finance at New York University Stern School of Business, where he teaches courses in accounting, financial analysis and investor relations. Professor Lev has been with NYU over 20 years. His primary research areas of interest include financial statement and investment analyses; intangible assets/intellectual capital; management and valuation; capital markets; and mergers and acquisitions. He is the author of six books including "Intangibles: Management, Measurement, and Reporting," "Winning Investors Over" and, most recently, "The End of Accounting and the Path Forward for Investors and Managers." Lev has published over 120 research studies in the leading accounting, finance and economic journals and received numerous awards and honorary doctorates. Before joining NYU, he held academic positions at the University of Chicago, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Tel Aviv University, where he was dean of the business school, and University of California at Berkeley (jointly appointed by the business and law schools). Lev's practical experience includes auditing, and investment banking. He was also a partner for over 15 years in a consulting firm.
Tara Pendleton is assurance director and audit quality director at BDO USA.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.