U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Jon Hubbard is a shareholder and consultant at Boomer Consulting Inc.
Glenn L. Friedman is co-managing partner and CEO of Top 100 Firm Prager Metis CPAs. He is also a partner in the advisory services and tax departments. He has been practicing since 1979. In 2013, his firm, Metis Group LLC, merged with another partnership, Prager and Fenton LLP to create Prager Metis. Prior to Prager Metis, Friedman started his career at an international law firm that specialized in foreign tax havens.
Wendy Valentino is a partner at Prager Metis CPAs. She has over 30 years of experience in the accounting industry. Prior to joining Prager Metis, she was a partner at Cohen Greve & Co. CPA PC, which combined with Prager Metis in 2017. She serves on Prager Metis’ due diligence committee for future combinations.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.