U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Carl E. Sera is a chartered market technician (CMT) and the managing principal of Sera Capital Management, a fee-only registered investment advisor based in Annapolis, Maryland, specializing in tax-efficient real estate exit planning, 1031 exchanges, Delaware statutory trusts and 721 UPREIT structures. He has more than 19 years of experience in financial services.
J. Henning Buchholz is a strategic initiatives, transformation and M&A leader who supports global organizations in unlocking value through strategic transactions and enterprise change. As a principal with Deloitte Consulting's M&A practice and co-leader of the U.S. divestitures & separations group, he advises global life sciences, technology, and other organizations on reshaping portfolios, driving growth and unlocking operational value through complex transactions and enterprise transformations.
Erin DeHaven is a partner with Deloitte Tax LLP in the transaction & integration services practice. She assists clients in addressing their comprehensive tax responsibilities, including tax technical, departmental operations and business process considerations during corporate life events, such as mergers, acquisitions, divestitures and legal entity rationalizations. Her experience includes transaction planning, consolidated group transactions, carve-out tax accounting, continuing operations calculations and project management. She has more than 12 years of experience assisting multinational corporations with their federal, state and international tax compliance and tax planning considerations, including ASC 740 and related accounting matters.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.