U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Chinmoy Bhatiya is an Associate Partner at Capco, leading the firm's Technology, Data and AI practice. He advises financial institutions on harnessing AI as a strategic advantage from individual productivity enhancement to adopting agentic operating models. With extensive experience helping organizations scale emerging technologies responsibly, Chinmoy focuses on balancing innovation with governance, enabling clients to realize business value from AI while maintaining strong controls, accountability, and operational resilience.
Brian Keller is vice president of AI and data science for LexisNexis Risk Solutions. In this role, Brian is responsible for driving AI strategy and execution for the insurance business, with a focus on workforce education, team enablement, and project execution that translates research and development into customer-facing capabilities.
Brian joined LexisNexis Risk Solutions in 2022 as part of the acquisition of Flyreel, where he led the software engineering and AI teams. During his tenure, Brian has developed and deployed AI and computer vision solutions, including aerial imagery and ground-level interior and exterior analysis, as well as 3D scene reconstruction for claims and underwriting use cases. He has also led the development of generative AI capabilities, including transcription, summarization, question answering, and agentic automation.
Brian holds a PhD in systems and industrial engineering and a master's degree in systems engineering from the University of Arizona, along with a bachelor's degree with majors in physics and business from the University of Mount Union.
Adam Barbera is the CEO and founder of Dost, a native-AI finance automation platform built for the way finance teams actually work. After years selling enterprise software to CFOs, he saw the same broken accounts payable processes repeated in every company he visited, and decided to fix it himself. He founded Dost in 2021 with two colleagues and closed a $7.8 million Series A in late 2025.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.